It's getting trickier to predict holiday sales amid the popularity of gift cards and the increasing role of ''e-tailing,'' but the growing consensus among Wall Street pundits is for only modest gains.

Deloitte Research projects that holiday sales will rise between 4.5 percent to 5 percent for the November through January period, less than last year's 5.1 percent increase. The figures exclude business from automobiles and gas stations, but include online sales.

''There are a lot of things to worry about,'' said Carl Steidtmann, chief economist at Deloitte Research, citing higher food and gas prices and a slumping housing market.

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